129773928515000000_127Hexun homepage established mobile phone version of the stock/fund market for micro-blogging news blog live small company stocks the major new share placements by gem new third sector brokers New York themesBulletin deal prompted the financial calendar of earnings release memo block trade in thousands of shares of financial market Center collection of funds flowing to new share purchase financing Twitter pioneer financial management training in the daily limit of the unit gather Forum hexun.com stock > body font size print RSSMarch 27, 2012 from: securities journal author: Sun Hua rebound foreshadowed valuations are still on the rise in money supply space mirror today: Chase VP of security research and Development Center host Sun Hua fuzuomin period strategy, advising. Facing the vagaries of capital markets, investmentOwned small investors in particular high demand for experts in the capital strategy. To do this, open up new markets the securities Journal Research Center-columns--the capital strategy. This column today invited Chase Securities Research Center Vice President fuzuomin
tera gold, focus, focus on the current market and published on expert's unique "trick" and the "Ruse", and to the vast numbers of investors to improve the cityMacro-awareness
tera power leveling, promotion of actual combat skills helpful. Be representative indicators of macro-mobility in money supply, mainly through it as an intermediate target of monetary policy on the economy to adjust to achieve the policy intent. Valuations is a measure space profitability and investment in the stock market's main index. Study on the relationship between them undoubtedly can help to determine the macroscopicEffect of liquidity on the stock market. Commonly referred to as money supply, mainly refers to the M2. Representative of the growth of the M0, M1, M2 money supply trend, all a-share earnings to represent the relative valuations of the market as a whole. Through the comparison of data since 1996 the two, find M1 growth trend and difference of M1-M2Highly related to valuations. Market valuation levels significantly undervalued in January this year M1 rose 3.1%, 4.8% falling sharply in December last year, its lowest level since the beginning of the 90 's. In February M1 growth 4.3%. M1 growth was at a historically low level of two main factors: first, the Spring Festival and the financial management of enterprises-Change to the monetary segregation caused by factors such as the M1. Enterprises demand deposit bulk flow currencies (mainly urban and rural savings and Enterprise deposits). This is on the one hand and spring seasonal factors caused by deposits of large transfers related to the residents, and Enterprise deposits this year to the outflow of deposits of the population increases. The other hand is associated with the change of financial management mode of the enterprise itself��
����After many enterprises when getting a loan, deduction for transaction and payment of funds in a timely manner, the remaining funds for investment financing products to the public notice and deposit, rather than demand deposits, it also creates M1 should have been taken into account to the circulation of money. Second, financial deposits seasonal increase in intensity is greater than the same period in history. Typically each quarter are at the beginning of financial deposits collected (and enterprisesIndustry taxes) compared to financial deposits increased by early this year to be significantly greater than the historical period, the increase in this part of the deposit are not included in the measure of money supply, causing M1 per cent drop. Such factors are not sustainable. Therefore the current bottom rebound M1, is a great implications on the stock market. When these constraints disappeared, M1 increased trend growth would occur�� Given the high correlation of M1 and market valuation.
����Market valuations of underestimating it goes without saying that, so in this sense future markets should have a certain demonstrated that space. M1-M2 margin prediction market warmed at the same time, also found M1-M2 difference and trend of relative valuation of height fitting. Used the method since 1996 mDifference 1-M2 and after market valuations of historical trends and found M1-M2 the difference between trend can be seen as a reprint of valuation trends, trends is extremely close to each other. These comparisons proved that liquidity on the market valuation of the drivers are very obvious, liquidity and valuation of correlation is also persistent. Observed difference is negative and in the history of the M1-M2Low level, now has the value recovered. And relative valuations as a share of total earnings is a low rebound, both now in a State of low adhesion. Future as the M1-M2 gradually narrowing the difference, relative valuations are also rising. All current a-shares total 13 times times forward earnings, vertical market level lower than 1664 points areLower area on the a-share history. Horizontal below the United States three major stock indexes current levels, at average valuations of the main stock market index in the world.
����Indicates that a stock market valuations low, has a certain advantage of valuations of the case, its high probability of uplink. Therefore, appropriate relaxation of monetary policy this year under the trend of macro-higher positive impact of liquidity for the markets.In view of the money supply and the relative valuations of highly relevant, current trend of M1 and M1-M2 for the market there is a huge indicator.
����They predicted the rebound at the bottom of the market valuations is highly likely. Last week, although the market has adjusted, mainly because cautious concern to investors on a quarterly macroeconomic data. China's economic indicators orHas never been more vital to global markets. On Thursday, Bank issued a March manufacturing purchasing managers ' index (PMI) preview data accidentally hit a four-month low points
tera gold, and points to contraction for the fifth straight month of manufacturing industry in China. Nomura and HSBC, Goldman Sachs and other big line for the first time the slightly unexpected information to publish reports that this increase in ChinaA step increase the possibility of policy easing, initiatives such as rate cut may appear as early as the first half. Once further improved liquidity in the money market, stock market valuations to flourish again.
Others:
No comments:
Post a Comment